EV = (PSA 10 odds × PSA 10 value) + (estimated PSA 9 odds × PSA 9 value) + (remaining probability × 90% of raw value). The PSA 9 probability is estimated at ~65% of the non-10 probability — a reasonable baseline for modern cards in solid condition.
Where do I find accurate PSA 9 and PSA 10 values?
Search eBay for the exact card name + "PSA 9" or "PSA 10", then filter to Sold Listings. Average the last 3–5 sales for a reliable number. Avoid asking prices — they're often wishful thinking.
How do I estimate my PSA 10 odds?
Look up the card on PSA's pop report. Divide the PSA 10 count by total cards graded to get a historical rate. Then adjust up or down based on your card's actual condition. New cards with great centering might exceed the pop average; played cards won't reach it.
Which PSA fee tier should I choose?
Regular ($79.99) is the most economical option but has the longest turnaround (40–50 business days). Express and Super Express cost more but return your card faster — worth it if you're flipping a time-sensitive card like a hot rookie mid-season. Always verify current pricing at PSAcard.com — fees change.
What counts as a "good" expected value?
A net profit of $20+ after all costs (fee + raw card value) is a solid green light. $0–$20 is marginal — turnaround time and your confidence in the condition matter more there. Negative EV means you'd likely be better off selling raw.
Should I use PSA, BGS, or SGC?
This calculator uses PSA because it has the highest liquidity and name recognition for most modern cards. BGS (Beckett) Pristine 10s often command a premium on vintage and high-end cards. SGC is faster and more affordable for vintage. The right grader depends on your card and your buyer pool.